{"id":8117,"date":"2026-04-18T04:10:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T04:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/presidentielle-un-an-avant-les-sondages-sont-souvent-loin-du-compte\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T04:10:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T04:10:07","slug":"presidentielle-un-an-avant-les-sondages-sont-souvent-loin-du-compte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/presidentielle-un-an-avant-les-sondages-sont-souvent-loin-du-compte\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9sidentielle : un an avant, les sondages sont souvent loin du\u00a0compte"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"\">\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--lf \">Les sondages sont-ils capables de pr\u00e9dire l\u2019issue de la pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027\u00a0\u00e0 un an du scrutin, alors qu\u2019on ne conna\u00eet encore ni la date ni la ligne de d\u00e9part de l\u2019\u00e9lection\u00a0? Depuis 1995, l\u2019exp\u00e9rience se montre assez peu convaincante.<\/p>\n<section class=\"catcher catcher--favoris\">\n<div class=\"catcher__content\"><span class=\"catcher__title catcher__title--hide\">Lire aussi |<\/span><span class=\"catcher__desc\">  <span class=\"icon__premium\"><span class=\"sr-only\">Article r\u00e9serv\u00e9 \u00e0 nos abonn\u00e9s<\/span><\/span>  Pr\u00e9sidentielle 2027\u00a0: les candidats et les dates-cl\u00e9s un an avant le scrutin <\/span> <\/div>\n<p> <button class=\"lmd-btn-icon lmd-btn-icon--primary lmd-btn-icon--m js-lmd-dropdown-favorite-toggler\" aria-controls=\"lmd-dropdown-favorite\" aria-label=\"Lire plus tard\" aria-describedby=\"article-title-3466545\" data-article-id=\"3466545\" data-position=\"lire aussi\" data-url=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/les-decodeurs\/article\/2026\/04\/17\/presidentielle-2027-les-candidats-et-les-dates-cles-un-an-avant-le-scrutin_6680905_4355770.html\" data-status=\"\"> <span class=\"icon__favorites\"\/> <span class=\"js-btn-icon-tooltip\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Lire plus tard<\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"multimedia-embed snippet  article__media--large article__media--default\">  <!-- dark-mode-support -->\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/assets-decodeurs.lemonde.fr\/redacweb\/editorial-design-sys\/lmui-variables.v1.4.9.css\"\/>\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/assets-decodeurs.lemonde.fr\/redacweb\/editorial-design-sys\/lmui-components.v1.4.9.css\"\/>\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/assets-decodeurs.lemonde.fr\/redacweb\/statics-v2\/styles\/decodeurs.css\"\/>\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/assets-decodeurs.lemonde.fr\/decodeurs\/assets\/SondagesUnAnAvant2026\/sondages_un_an.css\"\/>\n<p><h2 class=\"lmui-chart__title\">Le gagnant n&#8217;est pas toujours celui des sondages<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--lf \">Sur les six \u00e9lections de 1995\u00a0\u00e0 2022, les favoris des sondages ne l\u2019ont emport\u00e9 que dans la moiti\u00e9 des cas\u00a0: en\u00a01995, en\u00a02002\u00a0et en\u00a02022. Dans les deux derniers cas, Jacques Chirac et Emmanuel Macron \u00e9taient pr\u00e9sidents et il n\u2019y avait pas d\u2019incertitude quant \u00e0 leur candidature \u00e0 leur r\u00e9\u00e9lection.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--lf \">En\u00a02007, Jacques Chirac ne peut pas, apr\u00e8s deux mandats, \u00eatre candidat, mais les instituts de sondage pr\u00e9disent correctement le duel S\u00e9gol\u00e8ne Royal &#8211; Nicolas Sarkozy au second tour, et donnent S\u00e9gol\u00e8ne Royal gagnante. Sauf qu\u2019un an plus tard, le rapport de force s\u2019est invers\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__paragraph article__paragraph--lf \">En\u00a02011, Nicolas Sarkozy \u00e9tait candidat \u00e0 sa propre succession, mais les sond\u00e9s lui pr\u00e9f\u00e9raient alors Dominique Strauss-Kahn, candidat pressenti de la gauche \u00e9cart\u00e9 \u00e0 la suite de son arrestation au Sofitel de New York, ouvrant la voie \u00e0 une victoire du vainqueur de la primaire socialiste, Fran\u00e7ois Hollande.<\/p>\n<p class=\"reading-mode-only \"><strong>Il vous reste 82.44% de cet article \u00e0 lire. La suite est r\u00e9serv\u00e9e aux abonn\u00e9s.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/les-decodeurs\/article\/2026\/04\/18\/presidentielle-un-an-avant-les-sondages-sont-souvent-loin-du-compte_6681104_4355770.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les sondages sont-ils capables de pr\u00e9dire l\u2019issue de la pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027\u00a0\u00e0 un an du scrutin, alors qu\u2019on ne conna\u00eet encore ni la date ni la ligne de d\u00e9part de l\u2019\u00e9lection\u00a0? Depuis 1995, l\u2019exp\u00e9rience se montre assez peu convaincante. Lire aussi | Article r\u00e9serv\u00e9 \u00e0 nos abonn\u00e9s Pr\u00e9sidentielle 2027\u00a0: les candidats et les dates-cl\u00e9s un [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8118,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8117"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8119,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8117\/revisions\/8119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/akhbaronline.co\/hunter\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}